Quick Answer: Over the next decade, roughly three in four Canadian small business owners plan to exit, and more than $2 trillion in business assets could change hands, according to the Canadian Federation of Independent Business. Most of these owners will need to find an unrelated buyer, yet very few have a formal exit plan in place.

Canada is entering one of the largest transfers of business ownership in its history. The generation that built much of the country's small and medium-sized business base is reaching retirement age, and the scale of what is about to change hands is difficult to overstate. This piece looks at how large the transfer is, why so many owners are unprepared, who will end up buying these businesses, and what the shift means for owners planning to sell and for the buyers ready to step in.

What Is the Baby Boomer Business Transfer?

The phrase describes a demographic reality. A large share of Canadian businesses are owned by people now approaching or past traditional retirement age, and over the coming decade most of them intend to step away. Because so many owners are reaching this stage at once, the transfer is concentrated into a relatively short window, which is why it is sometimes called a silver tsunami. For a business owner, it means more sellers will be entering the market at the same time. For a buyer, it means a rare abundance of established, profitable businesses becoming available.

How Many Canadian Businesses Will Change Hands?

The headline figures come from the Canadian Federation of Independent Business. Roughly 76 percent of small business owners, about three in four, plan to exit their business within the next decade, and that could put more than $2 trillion in business assets in play. Retirement is the leading reason, cited by about 75 percent of departing owners.

This matters beyond the individuals involved. Small and medium-sized businesses account for roughly half of Canada's GDP and close to two-thirds of private-sector employment, so how smoothly these transitions happen has real consequences for jobs and communities. Handled well, the transfer moves established businesses into the hands of a new generation of owners. Handled poorly, it risks avoidable closures and lost value.

Why Are So Many Owners Unprepared?

Despite the scale, preparation is strikingly thin. The Canadian Federation of Independent Business reports that only about 9 percent of owners, fewer than one in ten, have a formal exit plan in place. That gap creates two problems.

The first is timing. A sale done well takes 12 to 24 months of preparation, and an owner who starts only when they are ready to leave has little room to improve the business or its financial records first. The second is value erosion. Research from the Business Development Bank of Canada found that owners approaching an exit often become reluctant to take risks, with a large majority pulling back on investment in the years before they sell. This pre-exit drift quietly lowers the value of the very asset the owner is about to sell. The lesson for any business owner is the same: preparation started early protects both the price and the options.

Who Will Buy These Businesses?

Many owners assume the business will pass to family. In practice, that is often not what happens. According to CIBC, drawing on KPMG research, nearly 80 percent of owners would prefer to transition their business to a family member, yet only about a quarter ultimately sell to family or an employee, while roughly half sell to an unrelated buyer.

The reason is partly generational. Deloitte research has long shown that only about 30 percent of family businesses survive into the second generation, and far fewer into the third. Children may have their own careers, or the business may need capital and energy the next generation cannot provide. For a large share of retiring owners, the realistic and often better outcome is a sale to a qualified outside buyer who is motivated to grow what the founder built.

This is the gap Heirly is built to close. Finding the right unrelated buyer, privately and among people who have been verified in advance, is precisely the challenge the coming decade will place in front of Canadian owners. Heirly matches sellers confidentially with verified buyers rather than exposing the business to a public listing.

What Does This Mean for Business Owners Planning to Exit?

For an owner, the message is to prepare early and deliberately. The wave means more businesses will be on the market at once, and buyers will have choice, so the businesses that present cleanly, with organized financial records, reduced owner dependence, and a defensible valuation, will command the most attention and the best terms. An owner who waits until the last minute enters a more crowded market with a less prepared business.

The single most useful first step is knowing what the business is worth today. A current, defensible valuation tells the owner where they stand, what to improve, and whether the timing works. Heirly offers a private, no-obligation valuation for exactly this purpose.

What Does This Mean for Buyers?

For buyers, including the growing number of people pursuing entrepreneurship through acquisition, the coming decade is an unusual opportunity. Rarely have so many established, cash-generating businesses been available at once. The challenge for a buyer is not whether opportunities exist, but finding the serious, off-market ones and reaching motivated owners before a business is picked over on public listings. A private, verified matching process gives a buyer access to owners who value discretion and a professional introduction, which is where Heirly focuses.

Frequently Asked Questions

How many Canadian businesses will be sold in the next decade?

According to the Canadian Federation of Independent Business, about 76 percent of small business owners plan to exit their business within the next decade, which could put more than $2 trillion in business assets in play. Retirement is the leading reason, cited by roughly 75 percent of departing owners.

What is the silver tsunami in Canadian business?

It refers to the large number of business owners reaching retirement age at roughly the same time, concentrating a very large transfer of business ownership into a relatively short window. It creates both a surge of sellers and an unusual supply of established businesses for buyers.

Do most Canadian business owners sell to family?

Usually not. CIBC, citing KPMG, reports that nearly 80 percent of owners would prefer to transition to a family member, but only about a quarter sell to family or an employee, while roughly half sell to an unrelated buyer. Deloitte research shows only about 30 percent of family businesses survive into the second generation.

How should an owner prepare for the transfer wave?

Start early. Because more businesses will be on the market at once, a prepared business stands out. An owner should organize financial records, reduce the business's dependence on them personally, and get a current, defensible valuation. Preparation of 12 to 24 months gives the most options.

Know What Your Business Is Worth Before the Wave

The coming decade will reward business owners who prepare early and buyers who can find serious opportunities privately. For an owner, the first step is understanding what the business is worth today. Heirly offers a private, no-obligation valuation, and when the owner is ready, matches them confidentially with verified buyers rather than listing the business publicly. Start with a private valuation.

For more, see How to Value a Business in Canada: Methods, Multiples, and What Buyers Actually Pay, and How Much Is My Business Worth in Ontario?

If a sale is on the horizon, our complete guide, How to Sell Your Business in Canada, walks through the full process.