Welcome back to The Legacy Brief.

Heirly's monthly perspective on the Canadian business acquisition market. Here is what we are watching in June.

The News Cycle And The Real Story

By now you have likely heard that Canada entered a technical recession in the first quarter of 2026. Two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction - a 1.0 percent annualized decline in Q4 2025 followed by a 0.1 percent decline in Q1 2026 - is the headline.

Here is what the headline misses.

The contraction was narrow, tariff-driven, and concentrated. Real GDP declined in October 2025 and in March 2026. Growth was either flat or positive in the four months in between. Preliminary estimates for April 2026 already show a rebound of 0.4 percent, driven by the return of mining, oil, and gas activity. The Bank of Canada is forecasting full-year growth of 1.2 percent for 2026, with the OECD projecting further strengthening to 1.7 percent in 2027.

This is not the deep structural recession of 2009. It is an externally-induced soft patch in an economy that has shown - and continues to show - genuine resilience.

But here is the more interesting question for business owners and serious acquirers: what does this environment actually mean for buying and selling established businesses?

Why Uncertainty Accelerates Decisions - On Both Sides

Economic uncertainty does something predictable to business owners who have been thinking about an exit. It moves timelines forward.

An owner who had mentally planned to sell in three or four years re-examines that plan when the economic environment shifts. The question changes from "when is the right time?" to "is now actually the right time?" That re-examination leads to action - often sooner than the owner expected.

This is not speculation. KPMG Canada's 2026 M&A survey of 252 business leaders across 14 sectors found that 33 percent plan to make a major acquisition in the next 18 months. Among private and private equity-backed companies, that number rises to 36 percent. The buyers are not retreating. They are moving with more discipline - but they are moving.

And the research on what happens to acquirers during periods of uncertainty is striking. Analysis from Norton Rose Fulbright found that companies which remained active acquirers during economic downturns posted average annual returns of 6.1 percent - compared to 3.8 percent for those that moved to the sidelines.

The businesses that get acquired in uncertain markets are often the same businesses that thrive under new ownership. The external pressure is real. The underlying value is also real.

What This Means If You Are Thinking About Selling

The most important insight from the current environment is one that most owners do not hear until it is too late: the best time to sell is before the conditions that might push you to sell have fully arrived.

Owners who move in 2026 are entering a market with motivated, capitalized buyers - a KPMG survey found one in three Canadian business leaders planning a major acquisition in the next 18 months. Credit conditions remain accessible, with the Bank of Canada overnight rate at 2.25 percent. And the supply of established businesses coming to market is still relatively contained - that will change as more Baby Boomer owners reach retirement age.

Selling into a less crowded field, with motivated buyers who have capital and intent, is a materially different outcome than selling two or three years from now when the supply picture may look quite different.

PwC Canada estimates that approximately one in five Canadian companies will change hands within the next five years - and that the number of potential buyers already exceeds the number of sellers. That is an unusual dynamic. It will not last indefinitely.

The owners who understand this are already asking the right question: what is my business actually worth today?

Get your private, no-obligation valuation at heirly.co/business-valuation. It takes under 30 seconds.

What This Means If You Are Looking To Acquire

Periods of economic uncertainty have historically produced some of the most compelling acquisition opportunities - and some of the most disciplined buyers have understood this for decades.

The businesses available in 2026 are not distressed businesses. They are established, profitable operations whose owners are making rational decisions about timing in a changed environment. The difference between a business sold under duress and a business sold by a motivated owner who is simply ready to move is significant - in quality, in transition smoothness, and in the relationship between buyer and seller.

The buyers who are moving now - with clear acquisition criteria, financing in place, and genuine operational intent - are accessing a field of opportunities that will look different in two or three years.

Heirly connects serious, verified buyers with established businesses through AI-powered matching. Private from introduction to closing. app.heirly.co/signup.

A Note From Toyin

Something I have been reflecting on this month.

The question I hear most often from business owners is some version of: "is now a good time?"

My honest answer is that the question itself is worth reframing. The right time is not a market condition. It is the intersection of a business performing well, an owner who is genuinely ready, and buyers with capital and intent who are looking for exactly what has been built.

All three of those things are present in the Canadian market right now.

The owners I speak with who have the clearest sense of direction are the ones who started with a number - an independent, market-based valuation of what their business is worth today. Not a hope. Not a guess. A number.

If you do not have that number yet, that is where to start.

heirly.co/business-valuation